There are strong grounds for thinking that one of the next “predictable surprises” that regulators, investors and others will miss will be climate change. For an academic description of how the “predictable surprise” phenomenon works, see http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=785990 Two leading experts – Thomas Homer-Dixon & Pavan Sukdhev – recently presented state of the art thinking to senior institutional investment specialists in London. This meeting was held under Chatham House rules but both experts and the audience were fully supportive of the information gaining as widespread coverage as possible.
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